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CloudQuant Predicted the Core CPI numbers weeks before the Government Release – Equity Markets Surge Most In Two Years

Core CPI charts

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released October’s CPI metrics. Core CPI increased 6.3% year-over-year, down .35% from 6.65% growth in September. Back in mid-October, researchers at CloudQuant predicted a 0.45% decline based on a model built from alternative data on its platform. Consensus estimates for Core CPI were around 6.5% or a 0.15% decline month-over-month. The slowing of growth was largely influenced by falling used vehicle prices, medical costs, and commodities (excluding food and energy). The cost of shelter showed a slight increase this month, even as the price of homes and home sales decreased due to increasing interest rates. Private sector data sources show a monthly decline in rent prices, however, due to the way housing cost is calculated as an input to CPI, economists don’t expect to see a housing cost-influenced-decline in CPI until the spring. 

Stay tuned next week for CloudQuant’s prediction of November’s Core CPI numbers, which will be released by the BLS on December 13th.

See last months blog post here.