Prosper Insights: High Performing Backtest and Core CPI Forecast

CloudQuant Monthly Interviews in Forbes

Every month, Morgan Slade, Founder and CEO of CloudQuant, is interviewed by Gary Drenik of Forbes. Morgan provides his thoughts and forecasts of the US Consumer Economy, as well as presents CQ Quant Researchers Monthly Core CPI forecast.

Prosper Consumer Survey Data Aids in Forecasting Core CPI, January 2024

Last month we saw an uptick in Headline CPI and decline in Core CPI. With CloudQuant, you can get a 3-week early insight into this month’s core consumer prices with our Core CPI Forecast. This month we’re forecasting a decline to 3.76% YoY growth for Feb’s BLS release covering consumer prices in January.

Past Core CPI Forecasts and Actuals, January 2022 To December 2023

Informed investors and consumers look to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’ monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release to gain insight into the macroeconomic state of the country. Economists, policymakers, and businesses base their economic outlook on this release; and it’s a key metric in the FED’s determination of interest rates. Core CPI specifically is used as an inflation proxy, as it excludes volatile food and energy prices.

By utilizing advanced machine learning models and alternative datasets, CloudQuant Core CPI Forecast can provide accurate forecasts nearly three weeks prior to the official release of the BLS Core CPI. Furthermore, our team of experts continuously monitor and update the models to ensure that they are always using the most up-to-date and relevant data, which further improves their accuracy.

With our predictive dataset, investors can gain a significant advantage in the market. It allows for ample time to make informed investment decisions and adjust portfolios, accordingly, potentially capturing alpha from market swings on the morning of the official release.

Data Dictionary: Core CPI Forecast

ColumnTypeDescription
_sequintInternal sequence number used to keep data rows in order
timestampstringTimestamp of the Data – America/New York Time.
mutsuint64Microseconds Unix Timestamp. An integer representation of a timestamp with microsecond precision that can be compared directly to other timestamps.
symbolstringTrading Symbol or Ticker
Actual Core CPIdoubleActual Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Predicted Core CPIdoublePredicted Core CPI
Actual YoY Change Core CPIdoubleActual YoY Change Core Core Consumer Price Index – CPI
Predicted YoY Change Core CPIstringPredicted YoY Change Core CPI
Actual Monthly Change of YoY Core CPIstringActual Monthly Change of YoY Core Consumer Price Index – CPI
Predicted Monthly Change of YoY Core CPIstringPredicted Monthly Change of YoY Core CPI

CloudQuant Developed Strategies featuring Prosper Forward-Looking Consumer Survey Data 

Prosper Backtest Update, January 2023

Monthly CloudQuant Subindustry signals continue to show strength in identifying subindustries that outperform SPY as well as under-performers that are great hedges for market risks. The backtest portfolio is constructed by buying/selling top stock bundles ranked by market cap within each selected subindustry[1] based on the signals.


[1] Selected subindustries include Catalog Retail, Consumer Electronics, Asset Management & Custody Banks,

Home Entertainment Software, Specialized Consumer Services, Application Software, Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation, Health Care Facilities, Air Freight & Logistics, Life & Health Insurance, Real Estate Services,

Trading Companies & Distributors, Trucking, Health Care Technology, Leisure Facilities, Heavy Electrical Equipment, Food Retail, IT Consulting & Other Services, Brewers, Health Care REITs, Food Distributors, Tires & Rubber, Footwear, Internet Software & Services, Specialty Stores, Diversified Commercial & Professional Services, Office REITs, Property & Casualty Insurance, Health Care Services

Latest Subindustry Signals from Prosper

Closer to 1 means outperformance; closer to 0 means underperformance.

Rankings Of Consumption Category Fields That Represent People's Willingness To Spend Over The Last Year